BDSA: Global cannabis sales to reach $58B by 2028

U.S. sales projected to total $46 billion by 2028.

BDSA projects global legal cannabis sales to reach $58 billion by 2028, driven by U.S. markets and the adult-use channel.

The market research firm reported global cannabis sales hit $36 billion in 2023. BDSA forecasts sales to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10% from 2023 to 2028.

“U.S. adult-use markets currently represent approximately 56% of total global cannabis sales, and are poised to claim an even larger share of global sales in the coming years as U.S. medical markets contract,” said Roy Bingham, co-founder and CEO of BDSA. “The cannabis industry is incredibly dynamic, with each market facing unique regulatory changes and industry pressures. Looking ahead to 2028, emerging adult-use states, particularly those on the East Coast and in the Midwest, are expected to contribute the strongest increase to total U.S. and global sales.”

U.S. sales totaled $29.5 billion in 2023. Sales are expected to grow to $32.4 billion this year, and reach $46 billion in 2028. While emerging adult-use markets, including Connecticut, Maryland, Missouri, New Jersey, New York and Illinois, are forecast to see some of the fastest growth, the most mature adult-use markets have struggled under the pressure of price compression and illicit competition since late 2021. Some mature markets, such as Michigan, have continued to grow their legal sales. Others such as California have stagnated, but are expected to return to modest growth in the coming years.

BDSA expects markets that are on the verge of legalizing adult-use to be another top driver of cannabis industry growth. Florida and Pennsylvania, both home to strong medical markets, are forecast to launch adult-use sales in 2025 and see strong growth out to 2028.

Like in the U.S., Canada’s cannabis market remains driven by adult-use sales, with $4.2 billion of the $4.5 billion in sales for 2023 attributed to the adult-use channel.

Globally, legal cannabis markets beyond the U.S. and Canada remain small, with BDSA estimating sales totaling just $2.4 billion in 2023. Total international cannabis sales are forecast to grow at a CAGR of 24% through 2028, reaching $7 billion.

BDSA will discuss the new market forecast report in a webinar on March 20 at noon MT. This free webinar will unveil the top cannabis industry growth opportunities in 2024, analyze industry forecasts through 2028 and delve into the factors driving growth in the U.S. and beyond.

Alyse Thompson-Richards has held many positions with BNP Media, first serving as an intern at Candy Industry Magazine in summer 2012. She joined Candy Industry's staff full time as associate editor in August 2016 after a few years at newspapers in West-Central Illinois, becoming managing editor in March 2019. Alyse has also served on Cannabis Products Insider since March 2019. She has bachelor’s degrees in journalism and Spanish from Western Illinois University.