BDSA: Global legal cannabis market to reach $55B in 2027

U.S. cannabis market to generate $43 billion in 2027.

Driven primarily by adult-use sales, the global legal cannabis market is projected to reach $55 billion in 2027, according to a new five-year forecast from BDSA.

United States cannabis markets, particularly those in the Midwest and Northeast, are driving adult-use sales growth. BDSA forecasts the legal U.S. cannabis market will reach $43 billion in 2027, with an expected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of nearly 11% between 2022 and 2027. The adult-use channel is expected to represent $35 billion of those sales.

“New York, Missouri, New Jersey and Maryland are set to experience significant market growth, with New York and New Jersey each projected to be $2.5 billion markets by 2027,” said Roy Bingham, co-founder and CEO of BDSA. “While mature markets like California and Colorado continue to face stagnating or declining sales, Michigan has emerged as an outlier and is expected to become a $3.8 billion market by 2027.”

BDSA predicts a return to modest sales growth in California in 2025, and the market is expected to rebound to $5.24 billion in 2027. Despite a sales decrease in 2022, Colorado’s cannabis market is stabilizing, with expected sales of $1.6 billion in 2023, followed by eventual single-digit sales growth to reach $1.7 billion by 2027.

In Canada, legal sales are predicted to increase by 9% in 2023, reaching $4.6 billion. With a projected 5% CAGR from 2022 to 2027, Canada is expected to generate $5.3 billion in legal sales in 2027. Adult-use sales are anticipated to account for $4.3 billion in 2023, while the medical channel will gradually decline to $200 million by 2027.

Global markets beyond the U.S. and Canada are set to experience substantial growth, expanding by 38% in 2023 to reach $2.4 billion in sales. International cannabis markets are projected to maintain a 29% CAGR between 2022 and 2027, reaching $6.3 billion in sales by 2027. This growth will primarily come from adult-use channels, with Germany scaling back its legalization plans but still introducing a limited pilot program. In Mexico, adult-use sales are forecasted to start in the second half of 2024 and reach $1.5 billion by 2027.

For an in-depth look at cannabis food and beverage market, check out our 2023 State of the Industry coverage.

Alyse Thompson-Richards has held many positions with BNP Media, first serving as an intern at Candy Industry Magazine in summer 2012. She joined Candy Industry's staff full time as associate editor in August 2016 after a few years at newspapers in West-Central Illinois, becoming managing editor in March 2019. Alyse has also served on Cannabis Products Insider since March 2019. She has bachelor’s degrees in journalism and Spanish from Western Illinois University.