BDSA reports the legal United States cannabis market is expected to grow 12% by the end of 2023, reaching $29.6 billion.
In its now quarterly key market forecast update, the firm also noted the U.S. is forecast to deliver $45 billion in total legal sales by 2027.
The total global legal cannabis industry is predicted to reach $36.7 billion in 2023 (with 80% of sales from U.S. markets), growing at a compound annual growth rate of 13% from 2022 to 2027.
“Over the next five years, the biggest drivers of cannabis industry growth in the U.S. will be the thriving Midwest and East Coast markets,” said Roy Bingham, co-founder and CEO of BDSA. “New markets, especially adult-use markets like Missouri, New Jersey and New York, will lead growth. Although mature Western markets such as Colorado and California have experienced sales stagnation or decline due to price compression, they will continue to account for a substantial portion of legal sales through 2027.”
Emerging adult-use states drive U.S. growth
- Missouri legal cannabis sales are forecasted to reach $1.4 billion in 2023, driven by a strong start to adult-use sales.
- New York legal cannabis sales are projected to total $631 million by the end of 2023. New York is projected to reach $2.5 billion by 2027, experiencing a CAGR of 71% between 2023 to 2027.
New markets to watch
- Minnesota legalized adult-use cannabis in May 2023, with adult-use sales expected to begin in 2024 and total $177 million for the year. BDSA predicts total sales to grow at a CAGR of 68% from 2023 to 2027, totaling $875 million in 2027.
- Maryland and Delaware are set to launch adult-use sales in July 2023 and late 2024, respectively.
- Despite legal challenges, adult-use sales are expected to begin in Florida in 2025 and reach $4.3 billion by 2027.
Midwest cannabis markets poised for further growth
- In Illinois, total spending is forecast to grow by 8.3% to more than $2 billion this year as the state begins to roll out new licenses.
- Adult-use sales in Michigan have exceeded expectations in 2023, especially given how much other mature cannabis markets have struggled. Despite declining prices, Michigan is forecast to grow 19% in total sales by the end of 2023, forecast to top $3.5 billion in 2027.
Despite declines, states still hold promising potential
- California continues to be impacted by price compression and illicit competition, which led to annual legal sales declining for the first time in 2022. Based on slow sales in the first quarter of 2023, BDSA forecasts California sales will decline by 9% in 2023, totaling $4.8 million.
- Pennsylvania is also expected to see a slight decline in cannabis spending in 2023, with total legal sales forecast to be just over $1 billion this year.